Ponelope Investor Updates
The lived record — Sep 2025 → present
Founder-managed, Ponelope-advised — the founder's own capital, founder-executed.
Figures as reported in Ponelope's investor updates — not brokerage-audited.
These returns are not attributed to the system and are not combined with the
live system record below into a single figure. Green = published in a contemporaneous
update; amber = founder-provided.
Sep '25
+19.9% · published
Oct '25
+9.58% · published
Dec '25
+12.4% · published
Jan '26
+14.2% · published
Feb '26
+0.62% · provided
Mar '26
+9.66% · provided
Apr '26
+6.02% · provided
≈ +114.8%
Cumulative Sep–May · from Ponelope investor updates, not brokerage-audited · ≈ +118.5% incl. June MTD
Momentum-led autumn, a soft February, spring recovery, and an easing June — currently
hands-off, neutral at BAC / XLV / ABBV, watching for a sentiment shift. June is month-to-date.
↓ Below — the live system decision record (Tier 1 · paper / shadow) ↓
Ponelope OS · V2
Proof of Risk Management
86,623
Decisions Logged
Full reasoning chain on every decision
86.2%
Conviction Coherence
Measures alignment between the system's stated coherence and the decisions it emits. Not directional accuracy. See /proof/data for methodology.
0.54%
Hard Block Rate
469 of 86,623 decisions stopped by a hard risk management rule. Soft override-eligible blocks excluded — see /proof/data.
Ponelope is a verified autonomous investment engine.
Every decision is auditable. Every signal taken — and every signal
declined — is logged.
Current State
Live · 2026-09-11 14:29 UTC
Current market condition
RISK OFF
Capex market condition
EXPANDING
Market Condition momentum
⚡ JUST FLIPPED1h stable · ×0.85
Assets monitored
100
Last evaluation
2026-09-11 12:31 UTC
- · Calibration active: neutral / neutral -0.100 (n=22897)
- · Pattern library: 16,741 patterns built · SHADOW
- · EWJ performance memory: +0.020 (n=63, 68% accuracy)
Live Autonomous Decisions
Apr 2026 — Present
SHADOW MODE — Paper Trading
Autonomous Operation
Ponelope operating independently. Paper trading. Full audit trail.
Directional Accuracy (7-day)
Neutral theses excluded by design
Bullish Signals
52.6%
Predicted up, realized up at 7d close
n=9935 resolved
Bearish Signals
48.3%
Predicted down, realized down at 7d close
n=4292 resolved
Combined Directional
51.3%
Bullish + bearish, neutral excluded
n=14227 resolved
Of decisions whose 7-day forward return is resolved, the share whose
predicted direction matched the realized close-of-day move.
Neutral theses resolve to pnl=0 by definition (not a directional
prediction) and are excluded so the rate reflects actual signal
quality, not the structural floor. Full breakdown on /proof/data.
MSFT +10.72%
Best Paper Position
Sample size growing daily.
Win rate and profit factor are accumulating; 30-day outcome
resolution windows are now completing. Every decision is logged
with its full reasoning chain — full audit trail available on
request.
Forward Simulation
SHADOW MODE ACTIVE
Live shadow-mode paper trading — no real capital at risk
| Month |
Return |
Paper Trades |
| Apr 2026 |
-0.08% |
19 |
| May 2026 |
+0.06% |
11 |
| Jun 2026 |
+0.31% |
7 |
| Aug 2026 |
+0.48% |
15 |
Forward simulation tracks Ponelope's live decisions in paper mode.
Real performance record available on request.
Live market condition classification synthesized from 9 market condition dimensions: vol, trend, breadth, credit, rates, liquidity, geopolitical, capex, and policy.
RISK OFF
-25
Defensive positioning — flight to safety, rising volatility, negative flow.
Computed: Sep 11, 2026 12:31 UTC
Dimension Breakdown
VolatilityNormal Volatility
TrendNeutral
BreadthCollapsed
CreditNormal
RatesTightening Rates
LiquidityNormal
GeopoliticalHot
CapexExpanding
PolicyCrisis
30-Day Market Condition History
Aug 12
Today
Record Integrity — Disclosed Holes
The production decision record begins
April 19, 2026 (deploy
contract). Records from April 7–18 are pre-production era — the engine
ran on the founder's machine during migration — and carry weaker
evidentiary weight. Two holes are disclosed:
- Apr 13–16, 2026 — ~2,757
pre-production decisions destroyed by an Apr 17 destructive
database restore during migration. Permanent, documented.
- May 27 – Jun 2, 2026 — ~5,000 decisions never made
during a forecast accuracy-gate halt. Defenses now coded and firing.
Completeness claims about the decision record exclude these windows.
Maturity: Live Analysis Mode ·
Live data · 2026-09-11 14:29 UTC